$npx -y skills add agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills --skill custom-indicatorsCrypto-native indicators including NVT ratio, exchange flow, funding rate signals, holder momentum, and smart money flow
| 1 | # Custom Crypto Indicators |
| 2 | |
| 3 | ## Why Standard TA Falls Short for Crypto |
| 4 | |
| 5 | Traditional technical analysis was built for equities and forex — markets with |
| 6 | fixed supply, regulated exchanges, and institutional-dominated order flow. |
| 7 | Crypto markets have unique properties that demand purpose-built indicators: |
| 8 | |
| 9 | - **On-chain transparency**: Every transaction is public. We can measure real |
| 10 | economic activity, not just price and volume on a single exchange. |
| 11 | - **Supply mechanics**: Fixed or programmatic supply schedules make |
| 12 | supply-side analysis (velocity, holder distribution) meaningful. |
| 13 | - **Derivatives dominance**: Perpetual futures funding rates and open interest |
| 14 | often drive spot price, not the other way around. |
| 15 | - **Whale concentration**: A small number of wallets hold outsized supply. |
| 16 | Tracking their behavior provides alpha that equity-market TA cannot. |
| 17 | - **Exchange flows**: On-chain deposit/withdrawal to centralized exchanges |
| 18 | signals intent to sell or accumulate. |
| 19 | |
| 20 | This skill covers nine crypto-native indicators. Each section includes the |
| 21 | formula, interpretation guide, data sources, and a working code snippet. |
| 22 | |
| 23 | ## Files |
| 24 | |
| 25 | | File | Description | |
| 26 | |------|-------------| |
| 27 | | `references/indicator_formulas.md` | Full formulas, parameter tables, signal ranges for all 9 indicators | |
| 28 | | `references/signal_interpretation.md` | Composite scoring, divergence detection, false signal filtering | |
| 29 | | `scripts/compute_crypto_indicators.py` | Computes all 9 indicators from free APIs or demo data | |
| 30 | | `scripts/holder_momentum.py` | Holder count tracking with momentum signals | |
| 31 | |
| 32 | --- |
| 33 | |
| 34 | ## Indicator 1: NVT Ratio |
| 35 | |
| 36 | **Network Value to Transactions** — the crypto equivalent of a P/E ratio. |
| 37 | |
| 38 | ``` |
| 39 | NVT = Market Cap / Daily On-Chain Transaction Volume (USD) |
| 40 | ``` |
| 41 | |
| 42 | - **High NVT (> 65)**: Network is overvalued relative to its economic |
| 43 | throughput. Bearish signal. |
| 44 | - **Low NVT (< 25)**: Network is undervalued or seeing heavy real usage. |
| 45 | Bullish signal. |
| 46 | - **Data sources**: CoinGecko (market cap), blockchain explorers or |
| 47 | DeFiLlama (transaction volume). |
| 48 | |
| 49 | ```python |
| 50 | def nvt_ratio(market_cap: float, daily_tx_volume_usd: float) -> float: |
| 51 | """Compute NVT ratio. |
| 52 | |
| 53 | Args: |
| 54 | market_cap: Current market capitalization in USD. |
| 55 | daily_tx_volume_usd: 24h on-chain transaction volume in USD. |
| 56 | |
| 57 | Returns: |
| 58 | NVT ratio value. |
| 59 | """ |
| 60 | if daily_tx_volume_usd <= 0: |
| 61 | return float("inf") |
| 62 | return market_cap / daily_tx_volume_usd |
| 63 | ``` |
| 64 | |
| 65 | **Smoothing**: Apply a 14-day or 28-day moving average to NVT (called |
| 66 | NVT Signal) to reduce noise from daily volume spikes. |
| 67 | |
| 68 | --- |
| 69 | |
| 70 | ## Indicator 2: MVRV Ratio |
| 71 | |
| 72 | **Market Value to Realized Value** — compares the current market cap to the |
| 73 | aggregate cost basis of all holders. |
| 74 | |
| 75 | ``` |
| 76 | MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap |
| 77 | Realized Cap = Sum of (each UTXO * price when it last moved) |
| 78 | ``` |
| 79 | |
| 80 | - **MVRV > 3.5**: Most holders are in deep profit. Distribution likely. |
| 81 | - **MVRV < 1.0**: Most holders are underwater. Historically marks bottoms. |
| 82 | - **Data sources**: Glassnode, CryptoQuant (Bitcoin/Ethereum). For Solana |
| 83 | tokens, approximate via average entry price of top holders. |
| 84 | |
| 85 | ```python |
| 86 | def mvrv_ratio(market_cap: float, realized_cap: float) -> float: |
| 87 | """Compute MVRV ratio. |
| 88 | |
| 89 | Args: |
| 90 | market_cap: Current market capitalization in USD. |
| 91 | realized_cap: Realized capitalization (aggregate cost basis). |
| 92 | |
| 93 | Returns: |
| 94 | MVRV ratio value. |
| 95 | """ |
| 96 | if realized_cap <= 0: |
| 97 | return float("inf") |
| 98 | return market_cap / realized_cap |
| 99 | ``` |
| 100 | |
| 101 | For tokens without UTXO-based realized cap, estimate using average purchase |
| 102 | price from DEX trade history multiplied by circulating supply. |
| 103 | |
| 104 | --- |
| 105 | |
| 106 | ## Indicator 3: Exchange Flow |
| 107 | |
| 108 | **Net exchange deposits minus withdrawals** — signals selling or accumulation |
| 109 | intent. |
| 110 | |
| 111 | ``` |
| 112 | Exchange Netflow = Deposits to Exchanges - Withdrawals from Exchanges |
| 113 | ``` |
| 114 | |
| 115 | - **Positive netflow (large deposits)**: Holders moving tokens to exchanges, |
| 116 | likely to sell. Bearish. |
| 117 | - **Negative netflow (withdrawals)**: Tokens leaving exchanges to cold |
| 118 | storage. Bullish accumulation signal. |
| 119 | - **Data sources**: CryptoQuant, Glassnode. For Solana SPL tokens, track |
| 120 | transfers to known exchange wallets via Helius or Solana RPC. |
| 121 | |
| 122 | ```python |
| 123 | def exchange_netflow( |
| 124 | deposits_usd: float, withdrawals_usd: float |
| 125 | ) -> tuple[float, str]: |
| 126 | """Compute exchange netflow and interpret. |
| 127 | |
| 128 | Returns: |
| 129 | Tuple of (netflow_value, signal_label). |
| 130 | """ |
| 131 | netflow = deposits_usd - withdrawals_usd |
| 132 | if netflow > 0: |
| 133 | signal = "bearish" |
| 134 | elif netflow < 0: |
| 135 | signal = "bullish" |
| 136 | else: |
| 137 | signal = "neutral" |
| 138 | return netflow, signal |
| 139 | ``` |
| 140 | |
| 141 | Normalize by market cap for cross-token comparison: |
| 142 | `Netflow Ratio = Netflow / Market Cap`. |
| 143 | |
| 144 | --- |
| 145 | |
| 146 | ## Indicator 4: Funding Rate Signal |
| 147 | |
| 148 | Perpetual futures contracts use funding rates to anchor price to spot. |
| 149 | |
| 150 | ``` |
| 151 | Fun |