token-economics
starsforks
How to install token-economics?
agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills/token-economics
$npx -y skills add agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills --skill token-economicsToken supply dynamics, vesting analysis, inflation modeling, and valuation frameworks for crypto tokens
SKILL.md
| 1 | # Token Economics |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Tokenomics — the study of token supply dynamics, distribution, and value accrual — is one of the most important factors in crypto asset analysis. Supply changes directly affect price: new tokens entering circulation create selling pressure, while burns and locks reduce it. Understanding these dynamics lets you estimate dilution risk, identify overvalued or undervalued tokens, and anticipate price-moving unlock events. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Why Tokenomics Matters |
| 6 | |
| 7 | Price is a function of demand **and** supply. In crypto, supply is programmable and constantly changing: |
| 8 | |
| 9 | - A token inflating at 50%/year needs 50% demand growth just to maintain price |
| 10 | - A large unlock releasing 10% of circulating supply in one day often causes 5-20% drawdowns |
| 11 | - Tokens with >80% of supply locked have extreme dilution risk ahead |
| 12 | - Protocols that burn fees can become net deflationary, creating structural price support |
| 13 | |
| 14 | ## Key Supply Concepts |
| 15 | |
| 16 | ### Total Supply vs Circulating Supply |
| 17 | |
| 18 | ``` |
| 19 | total_supply = maximum tokens that will ever exist (or current total minted) |
| 20 | circulating_supply = tokens currently available for trading |
| 21 | locked_supply = total_supply - circulating_supply |
| 22 | circulating_pct = circulating_supply / total_supply * 100 |
| 23 | ``` |
| 24 | |
| 25 | ### Market Cap vs Fully Diluted Valuation |
| 26 | |
| 27 | ``` |
| 28 | market_cap = price * circulating_supply |
| 29 | fdv = price * total_supply |
| 30 | fdv_mcap_ratio = fdv / market_cap |
| 31 | ``` |
| 32 | |
| 33 | The **FDV/MCap ratio** measures future dilution risk: |
| 34 | |
| 35 | | FDV/MCap | Dilution Risk | Interpretation | |
| 36 | |----------|---------------|----------------| |
| 37 | | 1.0-1.5 | Low | Most supply already circulating | |
| 38 | | 1.5-3.0 | Moderate | Significant supply still locked | |
| 39 | | 3.0-5.0 | High | Majority of supply not yet released | |
| 40 | | >5.0 | Very High | Token will face massive dilution | |
| 41 | |
| 42 | ### Net Inflation Rate |
| 43 | |
| 44 | ```python |
| 45 | annual_new_tokens = emissions + vesting_unlocks + rewards |
| 46 | annual_burned = fee_burns + buyback_burns |
| 47 | net_new_tokens = annual_new_tokens - annual_burned |
| 48 | net_inflation_rate = net_new_tokens / circulating_supply * 100 # percent per year |
| 49 | ``` |
| 50 | |
| 51 | ## Supply Dynamics |
| 52 | |
| 53 | ### Inflationary Pressure (tokens entering circulation) |
| 54 | |
| 55 | - **Emissions**: Block rewards, liquidity mining, staking rewards |
| 56 | - **Vesting unlocks**: Team, investor, and advisor tokens unlocking on schedule |
| 57 | - **Unlock events**: Large one-time releases (cliff expirations) |
| 58 | - **Treasury spending**: DAO or foundation distributing tokens |
| 59 | |
| 60 | ### Deflationary Pressure (tokens leaving circulation) |
| 61 | |
| 62 | - **Fee burns**: Protocol burns a portion of transaction fees (like EIP-1559) |
| 63 | - **Buyback and burn**: Protocol uses revenue to buy and permanently destroy tokens |
| 64 | - **Staking locks**: Tokens locked in staking (temporarily removed from circulation) |
| 65 | - **Lost tokens**: Permanently inaccessible tokens (lost keys, burn addresses) |
| 66 | |
| 67 | ### Selling Pressure Estimation |
| 68 | |
| 69 | ```python |
| 70 | daily_emissions_usd = daily_new_tokens * token_price |
| 71 | percent_sold = 0.50 # assume 50% of new tokens are sold (conservative) |
| 72 | daily_sell_pressure = daily_emissions_usd * percent_sold |
| 73 | sell_pressure_ratio = daily_sell_pressure / daily_volume |
| 74 | # > 0.05 (5%) = significant selling pressure |
| 75 | # > 0.10 (10%) = heavy selling pressure |
| 76 | ``` |
| 77 | |
| 78 | ## Vesting and Unlock Schedules |
| 79 | |
| 80 | ### Key Concepts |
| 81 | |
| 82 | - **Cliff**: Period before any tokens unlock (typically 6-12 months) |
| 83 | - **Linear vesting**: Constant rate of unlock after cliff (monthly or daily) |
| 84 | - **Stepped vesting**: Periodic unlocks at set intervals (quarterly) |
| 85 | - **TGE unlock**: Percentage released at Token Generation Event |
| 86 | |
| 87 | ### Analyzing Unlock Impact |
| 88 | |
| 89 | ```python |
| 90 | unlock_amount_tokens = 10_000_000 |
| 91 | avg_daily_volume_tokens = 5_000_000 |
| 92 | unlock_volume_ratio = unlock_amount_tokens / avg_daily_volume_tokens |
| 93 | |
| 94 | # Impact assessment: |
| 95 | # < 1x daily volume: minor impact |
| 96 | # 1-5x daily volume: moderate impact, expect 2-5% drawdown |
| 97 | # 5-10x daily volume: major impact, expect 5-15% drawdown |
| 98 | # > 10x daily volume: severe impact, expect 10-30% drawdown |
| 99 | ``` |
| 100 | |
| 101 | ### Tracking Sources |
| 102 | |
| 103 | - **CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap**: Basic supply data |
| 104 | - **Token Terminal**: Revenue and valuation metrics |
| 105 | - **Token Unlocks (token.unlocks.app)**: Detailed unlock schedules |
| 106 | - **Project documentation**: Whitepapers, tokenomics pages |
| 107 | - **On-chain**: Vesting contract state, treasury balances |
| 108 | |
| 109 | ## Token Distribution Analysis |
| 110 | |
| 111 | ### Typical Allocation Ranges |
| 112 | |
| 113 | | Category | Typical Range | Red Flag | |
| 114 | |----------|---------------|----------| |
| 115 | | Team/Founders | 15-25% | >30% | |
| 116 | | Investors (Seed+Series) | 10-30% | >40% | |
| 117 | | Community/Ecosystem | 20-40% | <15% | |
| 118 | | Treasury/DAO | 10-20% | <5% | |
| 119 | | Public Sale | 5-20% | <2% | |
| 120 | | Advisors | 2-5% | >10% | |
| 121 | |
| 122 | ### Distribution Red Flags |
| 123 | |
| 124 | - **>50% insider allocation** (team + investors): Insiders control price |
| 125 | - **Short vesting** (<1 year): Quick dump risk |
| 126 | - **No cliff**: Immediate selling from day one |
| 127 | - **Large single wallets**: Concentration risk (use `token-ho |
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