churn-prevention

Name: churn-prevention
Author: coreyhaines31

bycoreyhaines31· 76 skills

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How to install churn-prevention?

coreyhaines31/marketingskills/churn-prevention

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SKILL.md

1	# Churn Prevention
2
3	You are an expert in SaaS retention and churn prevention. Your goal is to help reduce both voluntary churn (customers choosing to cancel) and involuntary churn (failed payments) through well-designed cancel flows, dynamic save offers, proactive retention, and dunning strategies.
4
5	## Before Starting
6
7	Check for product marketing context first:
8	If `.agents/product-marketing.md` exists (or `.claude/product-marketing.md`, or the legacy `product-marketing-context.md` filename, in older setups), read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for information not already covered or specific to this task.
9
10	Gather this context (ask if not provided):
11
12	### 1. Current Churn Situation
13	- What's your monthly churn rate? (Voluntary vs. involuntary if known)
14	- How many active subscribers?
15	- What's the average MRR per customer?
16	- Do you have a cancel flow today, or does cancel happen instantly?
17
18	### 2. Billing & Platform
19	- What billing provider? (Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle, Recurly, Braintree)
20	- Monthly, annual, or both billing intervals?
21	- Do you support plan pausing or downgrades?
22	- Any existing retention tooling? (Churnkey, ProsperStack, Raaft)
23
24	### 3. Product & Usage Data
25	- Do you track feature usage per user?
26	- Can you identify engagement drop-offs?
27	- Do you have cancellation reason data from past churns?
28	- What's your activation metric? (What do retained users do that churned users don't?)
29
30	### 4. Constraints
31	- B2B or B2C? (Affects flow design)
32	- Self-serve cancellation required? (Some regulations mandate easy cancel)
33	- Brand tone for offboarding? (Empathetic, direct, playful)
34
35	---
36
37	## How This Skill Works
38
39	Churn has two types requiring different strategies:
40
41	\| Type \| Cause \| Solution \|
42	\|------\|-------\|----------\|
43	\| Voluntary \| Customer chooses to cancel \| Cancel flows, save offers, exit surveys \|
44	\| Involuntary \| Payment fails \| Dunning emails, smart retries, card updaters \|
45
46	Voluntary churn is typically 50-70% of total churn. Involuntary churn is 30-50% but is often easier to fix.
47
48	This skill supports three modes:
49
50	1. Build a cancel flow — Design from scratch with survey, save offers, and confirmation
51	2. Optimize an existing flow — Analyze cancel data and improve save rates
52	3. Set up dunning — Failed payment recovery with retries and email sequences
53
54	---
55
56	## Cancel Flow Design
57
58	### The Cancel Flow Structure
59
60	Every cancel flow follows this sequence:
61
62	```
63	Trigger → Survey → Dynamic Offer → Confirmation → Post-Cancel
64	```
65
66	Step 1: Trigger
67	Customer clicks "Cancel subscription" in account settings.
68
69	Step 2: Exit Survey
70	Ask why they're cancelling. This determines which save offer to show.
71
72	Step 3: Dynamic Save Offer
73	Present a targeted offer based on their reason (discount, pause, downgrade, etc.)
74
75	Step 4: Confirmation
76	If they still want to cancel, confirm clearly with end-of-billing-period messaging.
77
78	Step 5: Post-Cancel
79	Set expectations, offer easy reactivation path, trigger win-back sequence.
80
81	### Exit Survey Design
82
83	The exit survey is the foundation. Good reason categories:
84
85	\| Reason \| What It Tells You \|
86	\|--------\|-------------------\|
87	\| Too expensive \| Price sensitivity, may respond to discount or downgrade \|
88	\| Not using it enough \| Low engagement, may respond to pause or onboarding help \|
89	\| Missing a feature \| Product gap, show roadmap or workaround \|
90	\| Switching to competitor \| Competitive pressure, understand what they offer \|
91	\| Technical issues / bugs \| Product quality, escalate to support \|
92	\| Temporary / seasonal need \| Usage pattern, offer pause \|
93	\| Business closed / changed \| Unavoidable, learn and let go gracefully \|
94	\| Other \| Catch-all, include free text field \|
95
96	Survey best practices:
97	- 1 question, single-select with optional free text
98	- 5-8 reason options max (avoid decision fatigue)
99	- Put most common reasons first (review data quarterly)
100	- Don't make it feel like a guilt trip
101	- "Help us improve" framing works better than "Why are you leaving?"
102
103	### Dynamic Save Offers
104
105	The key insight: match the offer to the reason. A discount won't save someone who isn't using the product. A feature roadmap won't save someone who can't afford it.
106
107	Offer-to-reason mapping:
108
109	\| Cancel Reason \| Primary Offer \| Fallback Offer \|
110	\|---------------\|---------------\|----------------\|
111	\| Too expensive \| Discount (20-30% for 2-3 months) \| Downgrade to lower plan \|
112	\| Not using it enough \| Pause (1-3 months) \| Free onboarding session \|
113	\| Missing feature \| Roadmap preview + timeline \| Workaround guide \|
114	\| Switching to competitor \| Competitive comparison + discount \| Feedback session \|
115	\| Technical issues \| Escalate to support immediately \| Credit + priority fix \|
116	\| Temporary / seasonal \| Pause subscription \| Downgrade temporarily \|
117	\| Business closed \| Skip offer (respect the situation) \| — \|
118
119	### Save Offer Types
120
121	Discount
122	- 20-30% off for 2-3 months is the sweet spot
123	- Avoid 50%+ discounts (trains customers to cancel for deals)
124	- Time-limit the offer ("This offer expires when you leave this page")
125	- Show the dollar amount saved, not just the percentage
126
127	Pause subscription
128	- 1-3 month pause maximum (longer pauses rarely reactivate)
129	- 60-80% of pausers eventually return to active
130	- Auto-reactivation with advance notice email
131	- Keep their data and settings intact
132
133	Plan downgrade
134	- Offer a lower tier instead of full cancellation
135	- Show what they keep vs. what they lose
136	- Position as "right-size your plan" not "downgrade"
137	- Easy path back up when ready
138
139	Feature unlock / extension
140	- Unlock a premium feature they haven't tried
141	- Extend trial of a higher tier
142	- Works best for "not getting enough value" reasons
143
144	Personal outreach
145	- For high-value accounts (top 10-20% by MRR)
146	- Route to customer success for a call
147	- Personal email from founder for smaller companies
148
149	### Cancel Flow UI Patterns
150
151	```
152	┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
153	│ We're sorry to see you go │
154	│ │
155	│ What's the main reason you're │
156	│ cancelling? │
157	│ │
158	│ ○ Too expensive │
159	│ ○ Not using it enough │
160	│ ○ Missing a feature I need │
161	│ ○ Switching to another tool │
162	│ ○ Technical issues │
163	│ ○ Temporary / don't need right now │
164	│ ○ Other: [____________] │
165	│ │
166	│ [Continue] │
167	│ [Never mind, keep my subscription] │
168	└─────────────────────────────────────┘
169	↓ (selects "Too expensive")
170	┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
171	│ What if we could help? │
172	│ │
173	│ We'd love to keep you. Here's a │
174	│ special offer: │
175	│ │
176	│ ┌───────────────────────────────┐ │
177	│ │ 25% off for the next 3 months│ │
178	│ │ Save $XX/month │ │
179	│ │ │ │
180	│ │ [Accept Offer] │ │
181	│ └───────────────────────────────┘ │
182	│ │
183	│ Or switch to [Basic Plan] at │
184	│ $X/month → │
185	│ │
186	│ [No thanks, continue cancelling] │
187	└─────────────────────────────────────┘
188	```
189
190	UI principles:
191	- Keep the "continue cancelling" option visible (no dark patterns)
192	- One primary offer + one fallback, not a wall of options
193	- Show specific dollar savings, not abstract percentages
194	- Use the customer's name and account data when possible
195	- Mobile-friendly (many cancellations happen on mobile)
196
197	For detailed cancel flow patterns by industry and billing provider, see [references/cancel-flow-patterns.md](references/cancel-flow-patterns.md).
198
199	---
200
201	## Churn Prediction & Proactive Retention
202
203	The best save happens before the customer ever clicks "Cancel."
204
205	### Risk Signals
206
207	Track these leading indicators of churn:
208
209	\| Signal \| Risk Level \| Timeframe \|
210	\|--------\|-----------\|-----------\|
211	\| Login frequency drops 50%+ \| High \| 2-4 weeks before cancel \|
212	\| Key feature usage stops \| High \| 1-3 weeks before cancel \|
213	\| Support tickets spike then stop \| High \| 1-2 weeks before cancel \|
214	\| Email open rates decline \| Medium \| 2-6 weeks before cancel \|
215	\| Billing page visits increase \| High \| Days before cancel \|
216	\| Team seats removed \| High \| 1-2 weeks before cancel \|
217	\| Data export initiated \| Critical \| Days before cancel \|
218	\| NPS score drops below 6 \| Medium \| 1-3 months before cancel \|
219
220	### Health Score Model
221
222	Build a simple health score (0-100) from weighted signals:
223
224	```
225	Health Score = (
226	Login frequency score × 0.30 +
227	Feature usage score × 0.25 +
228	Support sentiment × 0.15 +
229	Billing health × 0.15 +
230	Engagement score × 0.15
231	)
232	```
233
234	\| Score \| Status \| Action \|
235	\|-------\|--------\|--------\|
236	\| 80-100 \| Healthy \| Upsell opportunities \|
237	\| 60-79 \| Needs attention \| Proactive check-in \|
238	\| 40-59 \| At risk \| Intervention campaign \|
239	\| 0-39 \| Critical \| Personal outreach \|
240
241	### Proactive Interventions
242
243	Before they think about cancelling:
244
245	\| Trigger \| Intervention \|
246	\|---------\|-------------\|
247	\| Usage drop >50% for 2 weeks \| "We noticed you haven't used [feature]. Need help?" email \|
248	\| Approaching plan limit \| Upgrade nudge (not a wall — paywalls handles this) \|
249	\| No login for 14 days \| Re-engagement email with recent product updates \|
250	\| NPS detractor (0-6) \| Personal follow-up within 24 hours \|
251	\| Support ticket unresolved >48h \| Escalation + proactive status update \|
252	\| Annual renewal in 30 days \| Value recap email + renewal confirmation \|
253
254	---
255
256	## Involuntary Churn: Payment Recovery
257
258	Failed payments cause 30-50% of all churn but are the most recoverable.
259
260	### The Dunning Stack
261
262	```
263	Pre-dunning → Smart retry → Dunning emails → Grace period → Hard cancel
264	```
265
266	### Pre-Dunning (Prevent Failures)
267
268	- Card expiry alerts: Email 30, 15, and 7 days before card expires
269	- Backup payment method: Prompt for a second payment method at signup
270	- Card updater services: Visa/Mastercard auto-update programs (reduces hard declines 30-50%)
271	- Pre-billing notification: Email 3-5 days before charge for annual plans
272
273	### Smart Retry Logic
274
275	Not all failures are the same. Retry strategy by decline type:
276
277	\| Decline Type \| Examples \| Retry Strategy \|
278	\|-------------\|----------\|----------------\|
279	\| Soft decline (temporary) \| Insufficient funds, processor timeout \| Retry 3-5 times over 7-10 days \|
280	\| Hard decline (permanent) \| Card stolen, account closed \| Don't retry — ask for new card \|
281	\| Authentication required \| 3D Secure, SCA \| Send customer to update payment \|
282
283	Retry timing best practices:
284	- Retry 1: 24 hours after failure
285	- Retry 2: 3 days after failure
286	- Retry 3: 5 days after failure
287	- Retry 4: 7 days after failure (with dunning email escalation)
288	- After 4 retries: Hard cancel with reactivation path
289
290	Smart retry tip: Retry on the day of the month the payment originally succeeded (if Day 1 worked before, retry on Day 1). Stripe Smart Retries handles this automatically.
291
292	### Dunning Email Sequence
293
294	\| Email \| Timing \| Tone \| Content \|
295	\|-------\|--------\|------\|---------\|
296	\| 1 \| Day 0 (failure) \| Friendly alert \| "Your payment didn't go through. Update your card." \|
297	\| 2 \| Day 3 \| Helpful reminder \| "Quick reminder — update your payment to keep access." \|
298	\| 3 \| Day 7 \| Urgency \| "Your account will be paused in 3 days. Update now." \|
299	\| 4 \| Day 10 \| Final warning \| "Last chance to keep your account active." \|
300
301	Dunning email best practices:
302	- Direct link to payment update page (no login required if possible)
303	- Show what they'll lose (their data, their team's access)
304	- Don't blame ("your payment failed" not "you failed to pay")
305	- Include support contact for help
306	- Plain text performs better than designed emails for dunning
307
308	### Recovery Benchmarks
309
310	\| Metric \| Poor \| Average \| Good \|
311	\|--------\|------\|---------\|------\|
312	\| Soft decline recovery \| <40% \| 50-60% \| 70%+ \|
313	\| Hard decline recovery \| <10% \| 20-30% \| 40%+ \|
314	\| Overall payment recovery \| <30% \| 40-50% \| 60%+ \|
315	\| Pre-dunning prevention \| None \| 10-15% \| 20-30% \|
316
317	For the complete dunning playbook with provider-specific setup, see [references/dunning-playbook.md](references/dunning-playbook.md).
318
319	---
320
321	## Metrics & Measurement
322
323	### Key Churn Metrics
324
325	\| Metric \| Formula \| Target \|
326	\|--------\|---------\|--------\|
327	\| Monthly churn rate \| Churned customers / Start-of-month customers \| <5% B2C, <2% B2B \|
328	\| Revenue churn (net) \| (Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Start MRR \| Negative (net expansion) \|
329	\| Cancel flow save rate \| Saved / Total cancel sessions \| 25-35% \|
330	\| Offer acceptance rate \| Accepted offers / Shown offers \| 15-25% \|
331	\| Pause reactivation rate \| Reactivated / Total paused \| 60-80% \|
332	\| Dunning recovery rate \| Recovered / Total failed payments \| 50-60% \|
333	\| Time to cancel \| Days from first churn signal to cancel \| Track trend \|
334
335	### Cohort Analysis
336
337	Segment churn by:
338	- Acquisition channel — Which channels bring stickier customers?
339	- Plan type — Which plans churn most?
340	- Tenure — When do most cancellations happen? (30, 60, 90 days?)
341	- Cancel reason — Which reasons are growing?
342	- Save offer type — Which offers work best for which segments?
343
344	### Cancel Flow A/B Tests
345
346	Test one variable at a time:
347
348	\| Test \| Hypothesis \| Metric \|
349	\|------\|-----------\|--------\|
350	\| Discount % (20% vs 30%) \| Higher discount saves more \| Save rate, LTV impact \|
351	\| Pause duration (1 vs 3 months) \| Longer pause increases return rate \| Reactivation rate \|
352	\| Survey placement (before vs after offer) \| Survey-first personalizes offers \| Save rate \|
353	\| Offer presentation (modal vs full page) \| Full page gets more attention \| Save rate \|
354	\| Copy tone (empathetic vs direct) \| Empathetic reduces friction \| Save rate \|
355
356	How to run cancel flow experiments: Use the ab-testing skill to design statistically rigorous tests. PostHog is a good fit for cancel flow experiments — its feature flags can split users into different flows server-side, and its funnel analytics track each step of the cancel flow (survey → offer → accept/decline → confirm). See the [PostHog integration guide](../../tools/integrations/posthog.md) for setup.
357
358	---
359
360	## Common Mistakes
361
362	- No cancel flow at all — Instant cancel leaves money on the table. Even a simple survey + one offer saves 10-15%
363	- Making cancellation hard to find — Hidden cancel buttons breed resentment and bad reviews. Many jurisdictions require easy cancellation (FTC Click-to-Cancel rule)
364	- Same offer for every reason — A blanket discount doesn't address "missing feature" or "not using it"
365	- Discounts too deep — 50%+ discounts train customers to cancel-and-return for deals
366	- Ignoring involuntary churn — Often 30-50% of total churn and the easiest to fix
367	- No dunning emails — Letting payment failures silently cancel accounts
368	- Guilt-trip copy — "Are you sure you want to abandon us?" damages brand trust
369	- Not tracking save offer LTV — A "saved" customer who churns 30 days later wasn't really saved
370	- Pausing too long — Pauses beyond 3 months rarely reactivate. Set limits.
371	- No post-cancel path — Make reactivation easy and trigger win-back emails, because some churned users will want to come back
372
373	---
374
375	## Tool Integrations
376
377	For implementation, see the [tools registry](../../tools/REGISTRY.md).
378
379	### Retention Platforms
380
381	\| Tool \| Best For \| Key Feature \|
382	\|------\|----------\|-------------\|
383	\| Churnkey \| Full cancel flow + dunning \| AI-powered adaptive offers, 34% avg save rate \|
384	\| ProsperStack \| Cancel flows with analytics \| Advanced rules engine, Stripe/Chargebee integration \|
385	\| Raaft \| Simple cancel flow builder \| Easy setup, good for early-stage \|
386	\| Chargebee Retention \| Chargebee customers \| Native integration, was Brightback \|
387
388	### Billing Providers (Dunning)
389
390	\| Provider \| Smart Retries \| Dunning Emails \| Card Updater \|
391	\|----------\|:------------:\|:--------------:\|:------------:\|
392	\| Stripe \| Built-in (Smart Retries) \| Built-in \| Automatic \|
393	\| Chargebee \| Built-in \| Built-in \| Via gateway \|
394	\| Paddle \| Built-in \| Built-in \| Managed \|
395	\| Recurly \| Built-in \| Built-in \| Built-in \|
396	\| Braintree \| Manual config \| Manual \| Via gateway \|
397
398	### Related CLI Tools
399
400	\| Tool \| Use For \|
401	\|------\|---------\|
402	\| `stripe` \| Subscription management, dunning config, payment retries \|
403	\| `customer-io` \| Dunning email sequences, retention campaigns \|
404	\| `posthog` \| Cancel flow A/B tests via feature flags, funnel analytics \|
405	\| `mixpanel` / `ga4` \| Usage tracking, churn signal analysis \|
406	\| `segment` \| Event routing for health scoring \|
407
408	---
409
410	## Related Skills
411
412	- emails: For win-back email sequences after cancellation
413	- paywalls: For in-app upgrade moments and trial expiration
414	- pricing: For plan structure and annual discount strategy
415	- onboarding: For activation to prevent early churn
416	- analytics: For setting up churn signal events
417	- ab-testing: For testing cancel flow variations with statistical rigor

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Run `npx skills use "https://github.com/coreyhaines31/marketingskills" --skill "coreyhaines31/marketingskills/churn-prevention"` and follow the generated skill instructions now. Read its complete output, redirecting it to a temporary file first if necessary. Resolve relative paths from the supporting-files directory it provides.

Use the skills in "https://github.com/coreyhaines31/marketingskills" that are relevant to the current task. Run `npx skills add "https://github.com/coreyhaines31/marketingskills"` and select the relevant skills, then follow their instructions.

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