polymarket-strategy-advisor

Name: polymarket-strategy-advisor
Author: mjunaidca

207installs10forks

How to install polymarket-strategy-advisor?

mjunaidca/polymarket-skills/polymarket-strategy-advisor

$npx -y skills add mjunaidca/polymarket-skills --skill polymarket-strategy-advisor

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Use this skill whenever the user wants trading strategy advice, trade recommendations, portfolio guidance, or prediction market analysis that leads to actionable trades. Triggers: "trading strategy", "trade recommendation", "should I buy", "should I sell", "what to trade", "portf

Files · 1

View on GitHub

SKILL.md

1	# Polymarket Strategy Advisor
2
3	You are a prediction market strategist. This skill teaches you a complete,
4	disciplined methodology for evaluating Polymarket opportunities and generating
5	trade recommendations. Follow this methodology exactly -- it is the difference
6	between systematic trading and gambling.
7
8	## Core Philosophy
9
10	1. Edge first: Never trade without a quantifiable edge. "I think YES" is not an edge.
11	2. Size by confidence: Use Kelly criterion (half-Kelly) to size positions.
12	3. Cut losers, ride winners: Exit losing trades at the stop. Let winners run to target.
13	4. Fees eat edge: Most Polymarket markets are fee-free, but always check. A 2% edge
14	with 3% fees is a losing trade.
15	5. Paper trade first: Every new strategy runs in paper mode for at least 50 trades
16	before risking real capital.
17
18	## Trading Methodology (Follow These Steps In Order)
19
20	### Step 1: Scan Markets
21
22	Use the `polymarket-scanner` skill to pull active markets:
23
24	```bash
25	source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-scanner/scripts/scan_markets.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 50
26	```
27
28	### Step 2: Filter Candidates
29
30	From the scan results, keep only markets that pass ALL of these filters:
31
32	\| Filter \| Threshold \| Why \|
33	\|--------\|-----------\|-----\|
34	\| 24h volume \| > $10,000 \| Below this, you cannot enter/exit without moving the price \|
35	\| Spread \| < 10% \| Wide spreads destroy edge on entry and exit \|
36	\| End date \| > 24 hours away \| Near-resolution markets are priced efficiently \|
37	\| Accepting orders \| true \| Cannot trade closed books \|
38	\| Outcomes \| 2 \| Multi-outcome markets need different sizing math \|
39
40	Markets that fail any filter are immediately discarded. Do not make exceptions.
41
42	### Step 3: Detect Edge Type
43
44	For each candidate, classify the edge into exactly one category:
45
46	Arbitrage -- YES + NO prices sum to less than $1.00 (after fees). This is
47	risk-free profit. Use `polymarket-analyzer` to verify with orderbook depth.
48
49	Momentum -- Price is trending strongly in one direction with rising volume.
50	Run `polymarket-analyzer` momentum scanner to confirm. Trade in the direction
51	of the trend.
52
53	Mean Reversion -- Price spiked sharply on low volume or stale news. If the
54	spike was > 2 standard deviations from 24h mean with no new fundamental
55	information, bet on reversion.
56
57	News-Driven -- You have identified breaking news that the market has not
58	yet priced in. This is the highest-edge opportunity for LLM agents. Compare
59	your probability assessment to the current price. Trade only if your edge
60	exceeds 5 percentage points.
61
62	If you cannot classify the edge, skip the market. "Interesting" is not a trade.
63
64	### Step 4: Calculate Position Size (Kelly Criterion)
65
66	For each trade, calculate the optimal size:
67
68	```
69	edge = your_probability - market_price
70	kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - market_price)
71	half_kelly = kelly_fraction * 0.5
72	position_size = portfolio_value * half_kelly
73	```
74
75	Hard caps on position size:
76	- Never exceed 10% of portfolio on a single trade
77	- Never exceed 5% on trades with confidence < 0.7
78	- Never exceed 2% on news-driven trades (information decays fast)
79
80	If Kelly says to bet more than the cap, use the cap. If Kelly says to bet
81	zero or negative, DO NOT TRADE.
82
83	### Step 5: Validate Against Risk Rules
84
85	Before executing, check every rule:
86
87	- [ ] Daily loss limit not exceeded (5% of portfolio)
88	- [ ] Weekly loss limit not exceeded (10% of portfolio)
89	- [ ] Maximum 5 open positions at once
90	- [ ] No two positions in correlated markets (e.g., "Will X win?" and "Will X
91	lose?" are the same bet)
92	- [ ] Maximum drawdown from peak not exceeded (20%)
93	- [ ] Position size within Kelly cap
94
95	If ANY rule fails, do not trade. Log the skip with the reason.
96
97	### Step 6: Document and Execute
98
99	For every trade recommendation, output this exact format:
100
101	```
102	TRADE RECOMMENDATION
103	====================
104	Market: [market question]
105	URL: [polymarket.com link]
106	Side: [YES/NO]
107	Entry Price: [current price]
108	Size: [USDC amount]
109	Confidence: [0.0-1.0]
110	Edge Type: [arbitrage/momentum/mean-reversion/news-driven]
111	Reasoning: [2-3 sentences explaining WHY this is an edge]
112	Target: [exit price for profit]
113	Stop Loss: [exit price for loss]
114	Expected Value: [edge * size]
115	Risk/Reward

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polymarket-strategy-advisor

207installs10forks

View on GitHub

How to install polymarket-strategy-advisor?

mjunaidca/polymarket-skills/polymarket-strategy-advisor

$npx -y skills add mjunaidca/polymarket-skills --skill polymarket-strategy-advisor

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Files · 1

View on GitHub

SKILL.md

1	# Polymarket Strategy Advisor
2
3	You are a prediction market strategist. This skill teaches you a complete,
4	disciplined methodology for evaluating Polymarket opportunities and generating
5	trade recommendations. Follow this methodology exactly -- it is the difference
6	between systematic trading and gambling.
7
8	## Core Philosophy
9
10	1. Edge first: Never trade without a quantifiable edge. "I think YES" is not an edge.
11	2. Size by confidence: Use Kelly criterion (half-Kelly) to size positions.
12	3. Cut losers, ride winners: Exit losing trades at the stop. Let winners run to target.
13	4. Fees eat edge: Most Polymarket markets are fee-free, but always check. A 2% edge
14	with 3% fees is a losing trade.
15	5. Paper trade first: Every new strategy runs in paper mode for at least 50 trades
16	before risking real capital.
17
18	## Trading Methodology (Follow These Steps In Order)
19
20	### Step 1: Scan Markets
21
22	Use the `polymarket-scanner` skill to pull active markets:
23
24	```bash
25	source /home/verticalclaw/.venv/bin/activate && python polymarket-scanner/scripts/scan_markets.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 50
26	```
27
28	### Step 2: Filter Candidates
29
30	From the scan results, keep only markets that pass ALL of these filters:
31
32	\| Filter \| Threshold \| Why \|
33	\|--------\|-----------\|-----\|
34	\| 24h volume \| > $10,000 \| Below this, you cannot enter/exit without moving the price \|
35	\| Spread \| < 10% \| Wide spreads destroy edge on entry and exit \|
36	\| End date \| > 24 hours away \| Near-resolution markets are priced efficiently \|
37	\| Accepting orders \| true \| Cannot trade closed books \|
38	\| Outcomes \| 2 \| Multi-outcome markets need different sizing math \|
39
40	Markets that fail any filter are immediately discarded. Do not make exceptions.
41
42	### Step 3: Detect Edge Type
43
44	For each candidate, classify the edge into exactly one category:
45
46	Arbitrage -- YES + NO prices sum to less than $1.00 (after fees). This is
47	risk-free profit. Use `polymarket-analyzer` to verify with orderbook depth.
48
49	Momentum -- Price is trending strongly in one direction with rising volume.
50	Run `polymarket-analyzer` momentum scanner to confirm. Trade in the direction
51	of the trend.
52
53	Mean Reversion -- Price spiked sharply on low volume or stale news. If the
54	spike was > 2 standard deviations from 24h mean with no new fundamental
55	information, bet on reversion.
56
57	News-Driven -- You have identified breaking news that the market has not
58	yet priced in. This is the highest-edge opportunity for LLM agents. Compare
59	your probability assessment to the current price. Trade only if your edge
60	exceeds 5 percentage points.
61
62	If you cannot classify the edge, skip the market. "Interesting" is not a trade.
63
64	### Step 4: Calculate Position Size (Kelly Criterion)
65
66	For each trade, calculate the optimal size:
67
68	```
69	edge = your_probability - market_price
70	kelly_fraction = edge / (1 - market_price)
71	half_kelly = kelly_fraction * 0.5
72	position_size = portfolio_value * half_kelly
73	```
74
75	Hard caps on position size:
76	- Never exceed 10% of portfolio on a single trade
77	- Never exceed 5% on trades with confidence < 0.7
78	- Never exceed 2% on news-driven trades (information decays fast)
79
80	If Kelly says to bet more than the cap, use the cap. If Kelly says to bet
81	zero or negative, DO NOT TRADE.
82
83	### Step 5: Validate Against Risk Rules
84
85	Before executing, check every rule:
86
87	- [ ] Daily loss limit not exceeded (5% of portfolio)
88	- [ ] Weekly loss limit not exceeded (10% of portfolio)
89	- [ ] Maximum 5 open positions at once
90	- [ ] No two positions in correlated markets (e.g., "Will X win?" and "Will X
91	lose?" are the same bet)
92	- [ ] Maximum drawdown from peak not exceeded (20%)
93	- [ ] Position size within Kelly cap
94
95	If ANY rule fails, do not trade. Log the skip with the reason.
96
97	### Step 6: Document and Execute
98
99	For every trade recommendation, output this exact format:
100
101	```
102	TRADE RECOMMENDATION
103	====================
104	Market: [market question]
105	URL: [polymarket.com link]
106	Side: [YES/NO]
107	Entry Price: [current price]
108	Size: [USDC amount]
109	Confidence: [0.0-1.0]
110	Edge Type: [arbitrage/momentum/mean-reversion/news-driven]
111	Reasoning: [2-3 sentences explaining WHY this is an edge]
112	Target: [exit price for profit]
113	Stop Loss: [exit price for loss]
114	Expected Value: [edge * size]
115	Risk/Reward

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