market-sizing
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How to install market-sizing?
phuryn/pm-skills/market-sizing
$npx -y skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizingEstimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry.
SKILL.md
| 1 | # Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM) |
| 2 | |
| 3 | ## Purpose |
| 4 | Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate. |
| 5 | |
| 6 | ## Instructions |
| 7 | |
| 8 | You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting. |
| 9 | |
| 10 | ### Input |
| 11 | Your task is to estimate the market size for **$ARGUMENTS** within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.). |
| 12 | |
| 13 | If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections. |
| 14 | |
| 15 | ### Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step) |
| 16 | |
| 17 | 1. **Market Definition**: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply |
| 18 | 2. **Top-Down Estimation**: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice |
| 19 | 3. **Bottom-Up Estimation**: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate |
| 20 | 4. **SAM Scoping**: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints |
| 21 | 5. **SOM Estimation**: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity |
| 22 | 6. **Growth Projection**: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years |
| 23 | 7. **Assumption Mapping**: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate |
| 24 | |
| 25 | ### Output Structure |
| 26 | |
| 27 | **Market Definition** |
| 28 | - Problem space and customer need |
| 29 | - Geographic and segment boundaries |
| 30 | - Key constraints or scoping decisions |
| 31 | |
| 32 | **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** |
| 33 | - Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning |
| 34 | - Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation |
| 35 | - Reconciliation of the two approaches |
| 36 | - Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity) |
| 37 | |
| 38 | **SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)** |
| 39 | - Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve |
| 40 | - Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier |
| 41 | - SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning |
| 42 | |
| 43 | **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)** |
| 44 | - Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years |
| 45 | - Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction |
| 46 | - SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning |
| 47 | |
| 48 | **Market Summary Table** |
| 49 | |
| 50 | | Metric | Current Estimate | 2-3 Year Projection | |
| 51 | |--------|-----------------|---------------------| |
| 52 | | TAM | | | |
| 53 | | SAM | | | |
| 54 | | SOM | | | |
| 55 | |
| 56 | **Growth Drivers & Trends** |
| 57 | - Key factors that could expand or contract the market |
| 58 | - Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts |
| 59 | - Emerging segments or adjacent markets |
| 60 | |
| 61 | **Key Assumptions & Risks** |
| 62 | - Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered) |
| 63 | - Confidence level for each (high / medium / low) |
| 64 | - How to validate the most uncertain assumptions |
| 65 | - What would materially change the estimates |
| 66 | |
| 67 | ## Best Practices |
| 68 | |
| 69 | - Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate |
| 70 | - Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks |
| 71 | - Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers |
| 72 | - Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data |
| 73 | - Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing |
| 74 | - Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets |
| 75 | - Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals |
| 76 | - Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates |
| 77 | |
| 78 | --- |
| 79 | |
| 80 | ### Further Reading |
| 81 | |
| 82 | - [Market Research: Advanced Techniques](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/market-research-advanced-techniques) |
| 83 | - [User Interviews: The Ultimate Guide to Research Interviews](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/interviewing-customers-the-ultimate) |
| 84 | - [Crossing the Chasm: The Ultimate Guide For PMs](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/crossing-the-chasm) |
| 85 | - [Product Innovation Masterclass](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/product-innovation-masterclass) (video course) |
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