$npx -y skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptionsPrioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.
| 1 | ## Prioritize Assumptions |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ### Context |
| 6 | |
| 7 | You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**. |
| 8 | |
| 9 | If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first. |
| 10 | |
| 11 | ### Domain Context |
| 12 | |
| 13 | **ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates. |
| 14 | |
| 15 | ### Instructions |
| 16 | |
| 17 | The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework: |
| 18 | |
| 19 | 1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions: |
| 20 | - **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers) |
| 21 | - **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort |
| 22 | |
| 23 | 2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix: |
| 24 | - **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed |
| 25 | - **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward) |
| 26 | - **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment) |
| 27 | - **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it |
| 28 | |
| 29 | 3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that: |
| 30 | - Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort |
| 31 | - Measures actual behavior, not opinions |
| 32 | - Has a clear success metric and threshold |
| 33 | |
| 34 | 4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table. |
| 35 | |
| 36 | Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial. |
| 37 | |
| 38 | --- |
| 39 | |
| 40 | ### Further Reading |
| 41 | |
| 42 | - [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas) |
| 43 | - [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course) |