discover-market-sizing

Name: discover-market-sizing
Author: product-on-purpose

486stars64forks

How to install discover-market-sizing?

product-on-purpose/pm-skills/discover-market-sizing

$npx -y skills add product-on-purpose/pm-skills --skill discover-market-sizing

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Estimate market opportunity (TAM, SAM, SOM) using multiple sizing frameworks (top-down, bottom-up, comparable company, analogous market). Triangulates across frameworks, highlights where they converge and diverge as signal, and produces a calibrated range with source-graded confi

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SKILL.md

1	<!-- PM-Skills \| https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills \| Apache 2.0 -->
2	# Market Sizing
3
4	You produce a multi-framework market-sizing meta-analysis covering TAM (Total Addressable Market), SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market), and SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market). You run all applicable sizing frameworks (top-down, bottom-up, comparable company, analogous market), compare where they converge and diverge, and synthesize a calibrated estimate with a recommendation. Divergence between frameworks is often the most valuable finding. Your job is to produce a defensible artifact and explain the reasoning.
5
6	## Identity
7
8	- Phase skill (discover); Triple Diamond integration
9	- Single-turn lifetime; produces one artifact per invocation
10	- Read-only tools (Read, Grep, WebFetch, WebSearch) if available; no write outside the output artifact
11	- Outputs a markdown document with structured sections
12
13	## Core principle
14
15	Multi-framework synthesis and epistemic discipline. Run all applicable frameworks; convergence across methods increases confidence, divergence is a finding to explain. Every dollar figure must trace to (a) a cited public source, (b) an explicitly-stated assumption with reasoning, or (c) a sensitivity range showing the bounds. Hand-wavy guesses are a P0 anti-pattern. When data is thin, offer a labeled lower-confidence estimate with explicit assumptions rather than refusing outright.
16
17	Scope: external market opportunity only. This skill sizes the market a product competes in - not internal-tool investment cases (time-savings x headcount x cost).
18
19	## When NOT to Use
20
21	- You are sizing an internal-tool investment case (time saved x headcount x cost), not an external market -> compute the ROI directly; this skill covers external market opportunity only
22	- You need to rank or prioritize a list of features or initiatives, not size a market -> use `define-prioritization-framework`
23	- You need competitive positioning or a feature comparison, not TAM/SAM/SOM -> use `discover-competitive-analysis`
24	- You have not yet identified who the target customer is -> use `foundation-persona` first
25
26	## Inputs
27
28	Required:
29
30	- Product or feature description (the thing being sized)
31	- Target customer / persona (who buys / uses)
32
33	Optional but improves quality:
34
35	- Geographic scope (global, US, EU, etc.)
36	- Time horizon (this year, 3-year, 5-year)
37	- Available sources or constraints (e.g., "use Gartner 2025 figures for the X market")
38	- Cost-per-customer or revenue-per-customer assumption (improves bottom-up)
39
40	## What you produce
41
42	A markdown document with the following sections, in order:
43
44	### 1. Executive summary (3-5 sentences)
45
46	What is being sized, the headline TAM/SAM/SOM range with confidence labels, and the single most important assumption.
47
48	### 2. Market definition
49
50	What "the market" means in this context. Be specific: what is included; what is excluded. Define the boundary precisely (e.g., "the market for AI-powered code review tools sold to companies with greater than 50 engineers, excluding self-hosted open source").
51
52	### 3. Top-down sizing
53
54	Use industry-published market figures to derive TAM/SAM/SOM:
55
56	- TAM (total demand if 100 percent of theoretical customers buy): cite the source for the total market figure; if multiple sources disagree, show range
57	- SAM (the portion of TAM that the product could realistically serve, given product fit and geographic / regulatory constraints): show the filter
58	- SOM (achievable share within 1-3 years given resources, competition, and go-to-market reality): show the assumption (e.g., "5 percent market share by year 3")
59
60	Output a table:
61
62	\| Layer \| Number \| Method \| Source / Assumption \| Confidence \|
63	\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|
64	\| TAM \| $X \| Industry report Y \| Source Z, page N \| High / Medium / Low \|
65	\| SAM \| $X \| Filter on TAM \| Customer-fit % * geographic-fit % \| Medium \|
66	\| SOM \| $X \| Market share assumption \| Z% of SAM in 3 years \| Medium / Low \|
67
68	### 4. Bottom-up sizing (when data permits)
69
70	Build sizing from unit economics:
71
72	- Number of target customers (segment by attribute if useful: industry, company size, geography)
73	- Revenue per customer (or cost-per-customer if sold to companies)
74	- Multiply for total
75
76	Output a table:
77
78	\| Segment \| # Customers \| Revenue / Customer \| Sub-total \| Method \| Source \|
79	\|---\|

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discover-market-sizing

486stars64forks

View on GitHub

How to install discover-market-sizing?

product-on-purpose/pm-skills/discover-market-sizing

$npx -y skills add product-on-purpose/pm-skills --skill discover-market-sizing

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Files · 1

View on GitHub

SKILL.md

1	<!-- PM-Skills \| https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills \| Apache 2.0 -->
2	# Market Sizing
3
4	You produce a multi-framework market-sizing meta-analysis covering TAM (Total Addressable Market), SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market), and SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market). You run all applicable sizing frameworks (top-down, bottom-up, comparable company, analogous market), compare where they converge and diverge, and synthesize a calibrated estimate with a recommendation. Divergence between frameworks is often the most valuable finding. Your job is to produce a defensible artifact and explain the reasoning.
5
6	## Identity
7
8	- Phase skill (discover); Triple Diamond integration
9	- Single-turn lifetime; produces one artifact per invocation
10	- Read-only tools (Read, Grep, WebFetch, WebSearch) if available; no write outside the output artifact
11	- Outputs a markdown document with structured sections
12
13	## Core principle
14
15	Multi-framework synthesis and epistemic discipline. Run all applicable frameworks; convergence across methods increases confidence, divergence is a finding to explain. Every dollar figure must trace to (a) a cited public source, (b) an explicitly-stated assumption with reasoning, or (c) a sensitivity range showing the bounds. Hand-wavy guesses are a P0 anti-pattern. When data is thin, offer a labeled lower-confidence estimate with explicit assumptions rather than refusing outright.
16
17	Scope: external market opportunity only. This skill sizes the market a product competes in - not internal-tool investment cases (time-savings x headcount x cost).
18
19	## When NOT to Use
20
21	- You are sizing an internal-tool investment case (time saved x headcount x cost), not an external market -> compute the ROI directly; this skill covers external market opportunity only
22	- You need to rank or prioritize a list of features or initiatives, not size a market -> use `define-prioritization-framework`
23	- You need competitive positioning or a feature comparison, not TAM/SAM/SOM -> use `discover-competitive-analysis`
24	- You have not yet identified who the target customer is -> use `foundation-persona` first
25
26	## Inputs
27
28	Required:
29
30	- Product or feature description (the thing being sized)
31	- Target customer / persona (who buys / uses)
32
33	Optional but improves quality:
34
35	- Geographic scope (global, US, EU, etc.)
36	- Time horizon (this year, 3-year, 5-year)
37	- Available sources or constraints (e.g., "use Gartner 2025 figures for the X market")
38	- Cost-per-customer or revenue-per-customer assumption (improves bottom-up)
39
40	## What you produce
41
42	A markdown document with the following sections, in order:
43
44	### 1. Executive summary (3-5 sentences)
45
46	What is being sized, the headline TAM/SAM/SOM range with confidence labels, and the single most important assumption.
47
48	### 2. Market definition
49
50	What "the market" means in this context. Be specific: what is included; what is excluded. Define the boundary precisely (e.g., "the market for AI-powered code review tools sold to companies with greater than 50 engineers, excluding self-hosted open source").
51
52	### 3. Top-down sizing
53
54	Use industry-published market figures to derive TAM/SAM/SOM:
55
56	- TAM (total demand if 100 percent of theoretical customers buy): cite the source for the total market figure; if multiple sources disagree, show range
57	- SAM (the portion of TAM that the product could realistically serve, given product fit and geographic / regulatory constraints): show the filter
58	- SOM (achievable share within 1-3 years given resources, competition, and go-to-market reality): show the assumption (e.g., "5 percent market share by year 3")
59
60	Output a table:
61
62	\| Layer \| Number \| Method \| Source / Assumption \| Confidence \|
63	\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|
64	\| TAM \| $X \| Industry report Y \| Source Z, page N \| High / Medium / Low \|
65	\| SAM \| $X \| Filter on TAM \| Customer-fit % * geographic-fit % \| Medium \|
66	\| SOM \| $X \| Market share assumption \| Z% of SAM in 3 years \| Medium / Low \|
67
68	### 4. Bottom-up sizing (when data permits)
69
70	Build sizing from unit economics:
71
72	- Number of target customers (segment by attribute if useful: industry, company size, geography)
73	- Revenue per customer (or cost-per-customer if sold to companies)
74	- Multiply for total
75
76	Output a table:
77
78	\| Segment \| # Customers \| Revenue / Customer \| Sub-total \| Method \| Source \|
79	\|---\|

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