$npx -y skills add Productfculty-aipm/PM-Copilot-by-Product-Faculty --skill cohort-analysisUse this skill when the user asks about "cohort analysis", "retention cohorts", "how to read cohort data", "analyze my retention", "what does my cohort data say", "cohort retention curves", "D7/D30 retention", "how to improve cohort retention", or has cohort data they want to int
| 1 | # Cohort Analysis |
| 2 | |
| 3 | You are helping the user analyze cohort retention data to understand how well the product retains users over time, identify where users drop off, and recommend actions to improve retention. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | Framework: AARRR (Retention stage), Lenny Rachitsky's retention benchmarks, North Star framework. |
| 6 | |
| 7 | ## Step 1 — Load Context |
| 8 | |
| 9 | Read `memory/user-profile.md` for product stage and business model. Read `context/company/analytics-baseline.md` for existing retention baselines and targets. |
| 10 | |
| 11 | ## Step 2 — Understanding the Cohort Data |
| 12 | |
| 13 | Ask the user to provide: |
| 14 | - The cohort data (can be a table, CSV, or described verbally) |
| 15 | - The cohort definition (what event defines "day 0"? — signup, first action, subscription start?) |
| 16 | - The measurement event (what defines "active" in day N? — login? Core action? Payment?) |
| 17 | - The timeframe (weekly or monthly cohorts? How many periods?) |
| 18 | |
| 19 | If the data is provided, identify: |
| 20 | - Cohort size (how many users started in each cohort?) |
| 21 | - Retention rates at each time period (D1, D7, D30, D60, D90, or W1, W4, W12) |
| 22 | - Trend: are newer cohorts retaining better or worse than older ones? |
| 23 | - The "elbow" — where does the sharpest drop occur? |
| 24 | |
| 25 | ## Step 3 — Retention Benchmarks |
| 26 | |
| 27 | Compare the user's retention to benchmarks from Lenny's data: |
| 28 | |
| 29 | **Mobile apps (consumer):** |
| 30 | - D1: 40% is good; 25% is typical; < 15% is concerning |
| 31 | - D7: 20% is good; 10% is typical; < 5% is concerning |
| 32 | - D30: 10% is good; 5% is typical; < 2% is very concerning |
| 33 | |
| 34 | **SaaS / B2B:** |
| 35 | - Week 1: 70%+ is good; 50–70% is typical; < 50% is concerning |
| 36 | - Month 1: 50%+ is good; 30–50% is typical |
| 37 | - Month 3: 30%+ is good; <20% is concerning |
| 38 | |
| 39 | **Freemium:** |
| 40 | - Day 7: 15–25% returning users is typical |
| 41 | - Conversion to paid: 2–5% is typical for free-to-paid |
| 42 | |
| 43 | Calibrate recommendations to the user's stage and model from memory. |
| 44 | |
| 45 | ## Step 4 — Diagnose the Drop-Off |
| 46 | |
| 47 | Find the point of sharpest drop: |
| 48 | |
| 49 | **If the drop is at D1 (first day):** Activation problem — users aren't experiencing the core value in their first session |
| 50 | - Fix: Improve onboarding flow; reduce time to first value; shorten the path to the "aha moment" |
| 51 | |
| 52 | **If the drop is at D7 (first week):** Habit formation problem — the product isn't building a regular use pattern |
| 53 | - Fix: Add triggers for return (email, notification); deepen value in the core loop; improve D3–D5 experience |
| 54 | |
| 55 | **If the drop is at D30 (first month):** Value realization problem — initial excitement fades without ongoing value |
| 56 | - Fix: Surface new value over time; expand the use case; proactive engagement around the next value moment |
| 57 | |
| 58 | **If cohorts are getting worse over time (newer cohorts retain less):** Product-market fit may be drifting — new users coming in are less well-matched to the product than early users |
| 59 | - Investigate: Has targeting changed? Has the product changed in ways that affect new users more than existing ones? |
| 60 | |
| 61 | ## Step 5 — Cohort Segmentation |
| 62 | |
| 63 | Ask: can the cohort be segmented to find which users retain and which don't? |
| 64 | |
| 65 | Segment by: |
| 66 | - Acquisition channel (organic vs. paid vs. referral) |
| 67 | - Activation action taken (did they complete the setup? Use the core feature?) |
| 68 | - Persona segment (from persona file) |
| 69 | - Cohort timing (January cohort vs. June cohort — did a product change affect one?) |
| 70 | |
| 71 | This segmentation usually reveals: a subset of users who retain very well, and a subset who churn almost immediately. Understanding the difference drives the highest-ROI improvements. |
| 72 | |
| 73 | ## Step 6 — Output |
| 74 | |
| 75 | Produce: |
| 76 | - Cohort data summary and pattern description |
| 77 | - Benchmark comparison with verdict: above/at/below benchmark |
| 78 | - Drop-off diagnosis with 2–3 most likely causes |
| 79 | - Segmentation recommendation (which cut would reveal the most insight?) |
| 80 | - Top 3 actions ranked by expected impact on retention |
| 81 | - One experiment to run in the next sprint to test the primary diagnosis |