$npx -y skills add SKE-Labs/agent-trading-skills --skill fibonacci-tradingMeasure Fibonacci retracement and extension coordinates over objective swings. Use when testing candidate pullback/target bands against non-Fibonacci controls rather than assuming special bounce levels.
| 1 | # Fibonacci Trading |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Fibonacci ratios provide a reproducible coordinate grid over a chosen swing. Empirical evidence does not support special standalone bounce power; use them only as candidate features or chart labels. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## Levels |
| 6 | |
| 7 | ### Retracement (Entries) |
| 8 | |
| 9 | | Level | Use | |
| 10 | | ----- | ------------------------ | |
| 11 | | 23.6% | Shallow pullback | |
| 12 | | 38.2% | Moderate pullback | |
| 13 | | 50.0% | Half retracement | |
| 14 | | 61.8% | Fibonacci-derived coordinate | |
| 15 | | 78.6% | Deep pullback | |
| 16 | |
| 17 | **Formula**: `Retracement = High - Range * Ratio` (where Range = High - Low) |
| 18 | |
| 19 | ### Extension (Targets) |
| 20 | |
| 21 | | Level | Use | |
| 22 | | ------ | ------------------- | |
| 23 | | 127.2% | Candidate extension coordinate | |
| 24 | | 161.8% | Candidate extension coordinate | |
| 25 | | 200% | Range multiple coordinate | |
| 26 | | 261.8% | Candidate extension coordinate | |
| 27 | |
| 28 | **Formula**: `Extension = High + Range * Ratio` (e.g., 127.2% = High + Range * 0.272) |
| 29 | |
| 30 | ## Drawing Rules |
| 31 | |
| 32 | - **Bullish measurement**: draw from an objectively confirmed swing low to high. |
| 33 | - **Bearish measurement**: draw from an objectively confirmed swing high to low. |
| 34 | - A coordinate is not an entry/target until a separately specified rule selects it. |
| 35 | |
| 36 | ## Workflow |
| 37 | |
| 38 | 1. **Get candle data** around the swing: |
| 39 | ``` |
| 40 | get_candles_around_date(symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>, date=<swing_date>) |
| 41 | ``` |
| 42 | |
| 43 | 2. **Draw Fibonacci retracement** on chart (auto-renders all standard levels): |
| 44 | ``` |
| 45 | draw_chart_analysis(action="create", drawing={ |
| 46 | "type": "fib_retracement", |
| 47 | "points": [ |
| 48 | {"time": <swing_low_timestamp>, "price": <swing_low_price>}, |
| 49 | {"time": <swing_high_timestamp>, "price": <swing_high_price>} |
| 50 | ], |
| 51 | "options": {"text": "Fib Retracement"} |
| 52 | }) |
| 53 | ``` |
| 54 | |
| 55 | 3. **Check confluence** with indicators: |
| 56 | ``` |
| 57 | get_indicators(indicator_code="rsi", symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>) |
| 58 | get_indicators(indicator_code="macd", symbol=<symbol>, exchange=<exchange>, interval=<interval>) |
| 59 | ``` |
| 60 | |
| 61 | 4. **Mark confluence zones** where Fib levels overlap with other structures: |
| 62 | ``` |
| 63 | draw_chart_analysis(action="create", drawing={ |
| 64 | "type": "demand", |
| 65 | "points": [ |
| 66 | {"time": <zone_start_time>, "price": <zone_top>}, |
| 67 | {"time": <zone_end_time>, "price": <zone_bottom>} |
| 68 | ], |
| 69 | "options": {"text": "61.8% + OB"} |
| 70 | }) |
| 71 | ``` |
| 72 | |
| 73 | 5. **Apply a testable trigger**: define rejection/structure numerically and compare Fibonacci overlap with equal-width non-Fibonacci controls |
| 74 | |
| 75 | ## Evidence and Validation |
| 76 | |
| 77 | - Treat the setup as a testable hypothesis, not a prediction. Define thresholds, entry, invalidation, and exit before evaluating outcomes. |
| 78 | - Calibrate on the same instrument, venue, session, and timeframe. Use closed candles and a held-out or walk-forward sample; record every variant tried. |
| 79 | - Include spread, fees, slippage, borrow or funding, partial fills, and latency. Reject the setup when net expectancy is not positive or depends on one narrow parameter. |
| 80 | - Return observed inputs, missing data, cost assumptions, entry, invalidation, exit, and a valid, watch, or no-trade status. |
| 81 | - Research basis: A multi-market [empirical study](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0957417421012495) found bounce rates at Fibonacci zones statistically indistinguishable from non-Fibonacci zones and no standalone outperformance. |
| 82 | |
| 83 | ## Key Rules |
| 84 | |
| 85 | - Define swing pivots, confirmation delay, and range before viewing the outcome. |
| 86 | - Do not trade a Fibonacci coordinate alone or assume confluence creates independent evidence. |
| 87 | - Never privilege 61.8% without held-out incremental results. |
| 88 | - Place invalidation where the underlying price thesis fails, then size accordingly. |
| 89 | - Set exits from tested structure/time rules; extensions are chart coordinates only. |
| 90 | |
| 91 | ## Related Skills |
| 92 | |
| 93 | - **supply-demand-zones** — test whether retracement coordinates overlap with objectively defined candle zones |
| 94 | - **multi-timeframe-analysis** — use Fib across timeframes for precise entry and target levels |