$npx -y skills add Stanestane/game-design-skills-bundle --skill game-design-perceived-randomness-auditAudit a game feature, combat system, loot table, reward loop, procedural system, chance mechanic, or uncertainty-driven design by how players are likely to perceive its randomness. Use when you need to evaluate whether a system will feel fair, streaky, rigged, sabotaging, manipul
| 1 | # Game Design Perceived Randomness Audit |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Audit not just the math of randomness, but the psychology of how players will read it. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | Use this skill when the core question is not only "is this random system balanced?" but also "what story will players tell themselves about this randomness?" The goal is to catch places where independent events will be perceived as rigged patterns, where streaks will feel malicious, where uncertainty undermines competence, or where the game could use presentation or structure to make randomness feel fairer and more legible. |
| 6 | |
| 7 | Read `references/perception-patterns.md` when you need the key psychology behind randomness perception. |
| 8 | Read `references/audit-checklist.md` when you need a compact checklist of design risks and mitigation levers. |
| 9 | |
| 10 | ## Core behavior |
| 11 | |
| 12 | - Keep the analysis practical, not statistical-for-its-own-sake. |
| 13 | - Audit player perception, not only formal probability. |
| 14 | - Distinguish actual randomness from perceived randomness. |
| 15 | - Identify where players will imagine patterns, sabotage, or "the game knows what I need and withholds it" behavior. |
| 16 | - Check whether randomness happens before the decision or between the decision and the outcome. |
| 17 | - Treat randomness that interferes directly with player action as more dangerous than randomness that shapes the environment. |
| 18 | - Look for streak pain, expectation mismatch, control illusions, and competence damage. |
| 19 | - Recommend concrete fixes in system design, UX, communication, and presentation. |
| 20 | |
| 21 | ## What to ask first |
| 22 | |
| 23 | Prioritize these questions: |
| 24 | 1. What is the feature or random system? |
| 25 | 2. What outcomes are random? |
| 26 | 3. What does the player know before acting, and what is hidden until after acting? |
| 27 | 4. What player action is this randomness attached to? |
| 28 | 5. What does the player usually want in the moment when the random outcome occurs? |
| 29 | 6. How often does the randomness happen, and how visible are streaks? |
| 30 | 7. Is the system meant to feel exciting, fair, learnable, punishing, suspenseful, or skill-testing? |
| 31 | 8. Are there safeguards, pity rules, weighted drops, rerolls, previews, or player-choice layers already present? |
| 32 | |
| 33 | If information is missing, infer cautiously and state the assumption. |
| 34 | |
| 35 | ## What to diagnose |
| 36 | |
| 37 | Quickly identify: |
| 38 | - whether the player is likely to assume hidden patterns in independent outcomes |
| 39 | - whether gambler's-fallacy-style expectations will make the system feel unfair after streaks |
| 40 | - whether players will expect conditional fairness such as "I have not gotten X lately so I should get it soon" |
| 41 | - whether randomness is input randomness, output randomness, or an unhealthy blur of both |
| 42 | - whether the system damages the feeling of competence by making deliberate actions resolve unpredictably |
| 43 | - whether players can meaningfully react to uncertainty using skill |
| 44 | - whether the presentation helps players understand the randomness or makes it feel rigged |
| 45 | - whether the mitigation method creates exploit risk or false promises |
| 46 | |
| 47 | ## Response structure |
| 48 | |
| 49 | Always organize the answer using this structure. |
| 50 | |
| 51 | ### System Read |
| 52 | - describe the random system in plain language |
| 53 | - state what is actually random and what is not |
| 54 | |
| 55 | ### Player Expectation Read |
| 56 | - explain what players are likely to expect from the system |
| 57 | - identify likely mistaken assumptions about balance, streak correction, fairness, or hidden intent |
| 58 | |
| 59 | ### Perceived Fairness Risk |
| 60 | - explain when the system is likely to feel fair, unfair, rigged, streaky, or malicious |
| 61 | - highlight the most likely frustration story players will tell themselves |
| 62 | |
| 63 | ### Randomness Placement |
| 64 | - identify whether this is mostly input randomness or output randomness |
| 65 | - explain whether randomness happens before the player chooses or after the player commits |
| 66 | - say whether that placement supports or undermines skill expression |
| 67 | |
| 68 | ### Competence and Agency Read |
| 69 | - explain whether players can adapt to the uncertainty with skill |
| 70 | - identify where randomness is likely to invalidate intentional play |
| 71 | - note whether the system feels like a challenge to respond to or a sabotage of action |
| 72 | |
| 73 | ### Risk Diagnosis |
| 74 | - give the top 2 to 5 perception risks |
| 75 | - include streak pain, hidden-intent suspicion, exploitability, or expectation mismatch where relevant |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ### Recommendation |
| 78 | - recommend specific design, UX, or messaging changes |
| 79 | - separate must-fix from optional polish when us |