marks-cycles
starsforks
How to install marks-cycles?
xuboyuebobb/investorskills/marks-cycles
$npx -y skills add xuboyuebobb/investorskills --skill marks-cyclesUse when evaluating markets through Howard Marks-style second-level thinking, credit cycles, risk premiums, market psychology, and defensive versus aggressive posture.
SKILL.md
| 1 | # Howard Marks Cycles |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Use this skill to apply Howard Marks-style cycle and risk judgment: identify where markets are in the cycle, compare price to value and risk premium, and decide whether to be defensive or aggressive. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | ## When To Use |
| 6 | |
| 7 | Use this skill when the user asks for: |
| 8 | |
| 9 | - Market cycle diagnosis |
| 10 | - Credit spread and risk premium review |
| 11 | - Second-level thinking on a crowded view |
| 12 | - Defensive or aggressive portfolio posture |
| 13 | - Whether risk is being rewarded or ignored |
| 14 | |
| 15 | Trigger phrases include `Howard Marks`, `cycle`, `second-level thinking`, `risk premium`, `credit cycle`, `defensive`, `aggressive`, and `market psychology`. |
| 16 | |
| 17 | ## Do Not Use When |
| 18 | |
| 19 | - The user needs a precise technical entry only. |
| 20 | - There is no market, valuation, credit, or sentiment context. |
| 21 | - The user asks for a prediction without uncertainty ranges. |
| 22 | - The setup requires leverage or forced timing. |
| 23 | |
| 24 | ## Inputs Needed |
| 25 | |
| 26 | - Asset class or market |
| 27 | - Valuation, yield, spread, or risk premium data |
| 28 | - Credit conditions, liquidity, default risk, and refinancing risk if relevant |
| 29 | - Sentiment, positioning, and consensus view |
| 30 | - Portfolio exposure and drawdown tolerance if posture is requested |
| 31 | |
| 32 | ## Process |
| 33 | |
| 34 | 1. Identify the cycle: early, mid, late, stressed, panic, recovery. |
| 35 | 2. Separate first-level view from second-level view. |
| 36 | 3. Compare price, value, and risk premium. |
| 37 | 4. Assess market psychology: fear, greed, complacency, forced selling. |
| 38 | 5. Decide posture: defensive, neutral, opportunistic, or aggressive. |
| 39 | 6. Size by margin for error, not confidence alone. |
| 40 | |
| 41 | ## Output Format |
| 42 | |
| 43 | ```md |
| 44 | # Marks Cycle View: [Market] |
| 45 | |
| 46 | ## Verdict |
| 47 | Defensive / Neutral / Opportunistic / Aggressive / Stand Down |
| 48 | |
| 49 | ## Cycle Position |
| 50 | |
| 51 | ## First-Level vs Second-Level View |
| 52 | |
| 53 | ## Risk Premium |
| 54 | |
| 55 | ## Market Psychology |
| 56 | |
| 57 | ## Portfolio Posture |
| 58 | |
| 59 | ## What Would Change The View |
| 60 | |
| 61 | ## Missing Data |
| 62 | ``` |
| 63 | |
| 64 | ## Guardrails |
| 65 | |
| 66 | - Do not forecast with false precision. |
| 67 | - Do not treat high returns as low risk. |
| 68 | - Do not become aggressive when risk is underpriced. |
| 69 | - Do not become paralyzed during panic if compensation is attractive. |
| 70 | - Always ask what is already in the price. |
| 71 | |
| 72 | ## Questflow Use |
| 73 | |
| 74 | In Questflow, this skill is best used as a portfolio posture and cycle-risk module across Funds, asset classes, and market regimes. |
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