soros-reflexivity

Name: soros-reflexivity
Author: xuboyuebobb

357stars13forks

How to install soros-reflexivity?

xuboyuebobb/investorskills/soros-reflexivity

$npx -y skills add xuboyuebobb/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Use when evaluating macro dislocations, reflexive feedback loops, policy shifts, positioning squeezes, and asymmetric bets in a George Soros style.

Files · 1

View on GitHub

SKILL.md

1	# Soros Reflexivity
2
3	Use this skill to apply George Soros-style reflexivity: identify where participant beliefs and market prices reinforce each other, test whether the feedback loop is unstable, and structure asymmetric macro trades with explicit invalidation.
4
5	## When To Use
6
7	Use this skill when the user asks for:
8
9	- Macro dislocation analysis
10	- Reflexive boom/bust dynamics
11	- Currency, rates, credit, equity index, or commodity regime shifts
12	- Crowded positioning and squeeze risk
13	- Asymmetric trade structuring
14
15	Trigger phrases include `Soros`, `reflexivity`, `macro dislocation`, `feedback loop`, `boom bust`, `asymmetric`, `policy shift`, and `positioning`.
16
17	## Do Not Use When
18
19	- The opportunity has no identifiable feedback loop.
20	- The trade cannot be expressed with clear invalidation.
21	- Liquidity is too poor to exit.
22	- The user wants passive long-term ownership analysis.
23
24	## Inputs Needed
25
26	- Market or macro theme
27	- Price trend, positioning, consensus narrative, and policy backdrop
28	- Key economic or liquidity data
29	- Catalyst path and time horizon
30	- Trade expression, stop level, and risk budget if available
31
32	## Process
33
34	1. Define the prevailing belief and the underlying reality.
35	2. Identify the feedback loop between prices, fundamentals, behavior, and policy.
36	3. Decide whether the loop is self-reinforcing, self-correcting, or breaking.
37	4. Test asymmetry: downside if wrong vs upside if the reflexive process accelerates.
38	5. Start with a probe if uncertain, add only when the market confirms.
39	6. Define invalidation and exit before sizing up.
40
41	## Output Format
42
43	```md
44	# Soros Reflexivity View: [Theme]
45
46	## Verdict
47	Probe / Press / Hold / Exit / Pass
48
49	## Prevailing Bias
50
51	## Reflexive Loop
52
53	## Asymmetry
54
55	## Trade Expression
56
57	## Invalidation
58
59	## What Would Make The Thesis Accelerate
60
61	## Missing Data
62	```
63
64	## Guardrails
65
66	- Do not call every trend reflexive.
67	- Do not size big before the market confirms.
68	- Do not hold after the thesis stops working.
69	- Do not ignore policy response.
70	- Do not confuse being contrarian with being right.
71
72	## Questflow Use
73
74	In Questflow, this skill is best used as a macro judgment module that monitors narratives, positioning, policy, cross-asset confirmation, and asymmetric risk windows.

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soros-reflexivity

357stars13forks

View on GitHub

How to install soros-reflexivity?

xuboyuebobb/investorskills/soros-reflexivity

$npx -y skills add xuboyuebobb/investorskills --skill soros-reflexivity

Installs into the current project.

Summary

Use when evaluating macro dislocations, reflexive feedback loops, policy shifts, positioning squeezes, and asymmetric bets in a George Soros style.

Files · 1

View on GitHub

SKILL.md

1	# Soros Reflexivity
2
3	Use this skill to apply George Soros-style reflexivity: identify where participant beliefs and market prices reinforce each other, test whether the feedback loop is unstable, and structure asymmetric macro trades with explicit invalidation.
4
5	## When To Use
6
7	Use this skill when the user asks for:
8
9	- Macro dislocation analysis
10	- Reflexive boom/bust dynamics
11	- Currency, rates, credit, equity index, or commodity regime shifts
12	- Crowded positioning and squeeze risk
13	- Asymmetric trade structuring
14
15	Trigger phrases include `Soros`, `reflexivity`, `macro dislocation`, `feedback loop`, `boom bust`, `asymmetric`, `policy shift`, and `positioning`.
16
17	## Do Not Use When
18
19	- The opportunity has no identifiable feedback loop.
20	- The trade cannot be expressed with clear invalidation.
21	- Liquidity is too poor to exit.
22	- The user wants passive long-term ownership analysis.
23
24	## Inputs Needed
25
26	- Market or macro theme
27	- Price trend, positioning, consensus narrative, and policy backdrop
28	- Key economic or liquidity data
29	- Catalyst path and time horizon
30	- Trade expression, stop level, and risk budget if available
31
32	## Process
33
34	1. Define the prevailing belief and the underlying reality.
35	2. Identify the feedback loop between prices, fundamentals, behavior, and policy.
36	3. Decide whether the loop is self-reinforcing, self-correcting, or breaking.
37	4. Test asymmetry: downside if wrong vs upside if the reflexive process accelerates.
38	5. Start with a probe if uncertain, add only when the market confirms.
39	6. Define invalidation and exit before sizing up.
40
41	## Output Format
42
43	```md
44	# Soros Reflexivity View: [Theme]
45
46	## Verdict
47	Probe / Press / Hold / Exit / Pass
48
49	## Prevailing Bias
50
51	## Reflexive Loop
52
53	## Asymmetry
54
55	## Trade Expression
56
57	## Invalidation
58
59	## What Would Make The Thesis Accelerate
60
61	## Missing Data
62	```
63
64	## Guardrails
65
66	- Do not call every trend reflexive.
67	- Do not size big before the market confirms.
68	- Do not hold after the thesis stops working.
69	- Do not ignore policy response.
70	- Do not confuse being contrarian with being right.
71
72	## Questflow Use
73
74	In Questflow, this skill is best used as a macro judgment module that monitors narratives, positioning, policy, cross-asset confirmation, and asymmetric risk windows.

People who liked this also viewed

6 picks

Type