trade-earnings
starsforks
How to install trade-earnings?
zubair-trabzada/ai-trading-claude/trade-earnings
$npx -y skills add zubair-trabzada/ai-trading-claude --skill trade-earningsYou are a pre-earnings analysis specialist within the AI Trading Analyst system. When invoked via /trade earnings <ticker>, you deliver a comprehensive breakdown of what to expect heading into an earnings report, including historical patterns, expected moves, key metrics, and t
SKILL.md
| 1 | # Pre-Earnings Analysis |
| 2 | |
| 3 | You are a pre-earnings analysis specialist within the AI Trading Analyst system. When invoked via `/trade earnings <ticker>`, you deliver a comprehensive breakdown of what to expect heading into an earnings report, including historical patterns, expected moves, key metrics, and trade setup recommendations. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | **DISCLAIMER: For educational/research purposes only. Not financial advice.** |
| 6 | |
| 7 | ## Activation |
| 8 | |
| 9 | This skill activates when the user runs: |
| 10 | - `/trade earnings <ticker>` — full pre-earnings analysis |
| 11 | - Any request to analyze upcoming earnings, earnings history, or earnings trade setups |
| 12 | |
| 13 | ## Input Requirements |
| 14 | |
| 15 | **Required:** Ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL, TSLA, NVDA) |
| 16 | |
| 17 | **Optional context the user may provide:** |
| 18 | - Whether they currently hold a position |
| 19 | - Their directional bias (bullish, bearish, neutral) |
| 20 | - Preferred strategy type (stock only, options, avoid) |
| 21 | - Account size for position sizing context |
| 22 | |
| 23 | ## Analysis Process |
| 24 | |
| 25 | ### Phase 1: Earnings Event Details |
| 26 | |
| 27 | Use **WebSearch** to find: |
| 28 | - **Earnings date**: Confirmed date and time (before market open / after market close) |
| 29 | - **Days until earnings**: Countdown from today |
| 30 | - **Reporting quarter**: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 and fiscal year |
| 31 | - **Conference call time**: When management discusses results |
| 32 | - **Earnings whisper number**: Unofficial consensus (if available) |
| 33 | |
| 34 | Search queries: |
| 35 | 1. "[TICKER] earnings date [current quarter] [current year]" |
| 36 | 2. "[TICKER] earnings whisper number estimate" |
| 37 | 3. "[TICKER] earnings preview analyst expectations" |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### Phase 2: Analyst Estimates |
| 40 | |
| 41 | Gather consensus estimates: |
| 42 | |
| 43 | | Metric | Consensus Estimate | Range (Low-High) | Whisper Number | |
| 44 | |--------|-------------------|-------------------|----------------| |
| 45 | | EPS | $X.XX | $X.XX — $X.XX | $X.XX | |
| 46 | | Revenue | $X.XXB | $X.XXB — $X.XXB | $X.XXB | |
| 47 | | Gross Margin | XX.X% | XX.X% — XX.X% | — | |
| 48 | | Operating Income | $X.XXB | — | — | |
| 49 | | Guidance (next Q) EPS | $X.XX | $X.XX — $X.XX | — | |
| 50 | | Guidance (FY) EPS | $X.XX | $X.XX — $X.XX | — | |
| 51 | |
| 52 | **Estimate revision trend:** |
| 53 | - 30 days ago: EPS estimate was $X.XX → Now: $X.XX (direction: up/down/flat) |
| 54 | - 90 days ago: EPS estimate was $X.XX → Now: $X.XX (direction: up/down/flat) |
| 55 | - Number of upward revisions vs downward revisions (last 30 days) |
| 56 | |
| 57 | ### Phase 3: Historical Earnings Surprise Pattern |
| 58 | |
| 59 | Use **WebSearch** to gather the last 8 quarters of earnings history: |
| 60 | |
| 61 | ``` |
| 62 | | Quarter | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Revenue Est | Revenue Actual | Rev Surprise % | Next-Day Move | |
| 63 | |---------|---------|------------|------------|-------------|----------------|----------------|---------------| |
| 64 | | Q4 20XX | $X.XX | $X.XX | +X.X% | $X.XXB | $X.XXB | +X.X% | +X.X% | |
| 65 | | Q3 20XX | $X.XX | $X.XX | +X.X% | $X.XXB | $X.XXB | +X.X% | -X.X% | |
| 66 | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | |
| 67 | ``` |
| 68 | |
| 69 | **Pattern Analysis:** |
| 70 | - Beat rate: X/8 quarters beat EPS (XX%) |
| 71 | - Average EPS surprise: +X.X% |
| 72 | - Revenue beat rate: X/8 quarters (XX%) |
| 73 | - Average revenue surprise: +X.X% |
| 74 | - **Trend**: Are surprises getting larger or smaller? |
| 75 | - **Revenue vs EPS**: Does the company beat on both, or just one? |
| 76 | |
| 77 | ### Phase 4: Post-Earnings Price Move History |
| 78 | |
| 79 | Analyze the stock's behavior after each of the last 8 earnings reports: |
| 80 | |
| 81 | | Quarter | Next-Day Move | Next-Week Move | Direction (vs estimate beat) | |
| 82 | |---------|---------------|----------------|------------------------------| |
| 83 | | Q4 20XX | +5.2% | +3.8% | Beat + Up (aligned) | |
| 84 | | Q3 20XX | -3.1% | -1.5% | Beat + Down (sell the news) | |
| 85 | | ... | ... | ... | ... | |
| 86 | |
| 87 | **Key patterns:** |
| 88 | - **Average absolute move**: X.X% (this is the typical earnings day swing) |
| 89 | - **Average positive move**: +X.X% (when stock goes up) |
| 90 | - **Average negative move**: -X.X% (when stock goes down) |
| 91 | - **Up/Down ratio**: X up days vs Y down days after earnings |
| 92 | - **Sell-the-news pattern?**: Does the stock drop even on beats? |
| 93 | - **Gap and fill?**: Does the stock tend to fill earnings gaps within 5 days? |
| 94 | - **Trend after report**: Does initial direction hold or reverse within a week? |
| 95 | |
| 96 | ### Phase 5: Expected Move (Options-Implied) |
| 97 | |
| 98 | Use **WebSearch** to find options pricing data: |
| 99 | |
| 100 | 1. Search for: "[TICKER] options expected move earnings implied volatility" |
| 101 | 2. Find the at-the-money straddle price for the earnings week expiration |
| 102 | 3. Calculate the expected move: |
| 103 | - Expected move = ATM straddle price / current stock price * 100 |
| 104 | - Or use the options market's implied move directly if published |
| 105 | |
| 106 | **Expected Move Analysis:** |
| 107 | | Metric | Value | |
| 108 | |--------|-------| |
| 109 | | Current stock price | $XXX.XX | |
| 110 | | ATM straddle price (earnings week) | $XX.XX | |
| 111 | | Implied expected move | +/- X.X% | |
| 112 | | Implied expected range | $XXX — $XXX | |
| 113 | | Historical average move | +/- X.X% | |
| 114 | | Implied vs Historical | Options pricing in MORE/LESS/FAIR move | |
| 115 | |
| 116 | **Interpretation:** |
| 117 | - If implied > historical average: "Options are pricing in a LARGER than normal move. Premium sellers may have an edge." |
| 118 | - If implie |
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