what-if-oracle
starsforks
How to install what-if-oracle?
leonchaox/qinyan-academic-skills/what-if-oracle
$npx -y skills add LeonChaoX/qinyan-academic-skills --skill what-if-oracleRun structured What-If scenario analysis with multi-branch possibility exploration. Use this skill when the user asks speculative questions like "what if...", "what would happen if...", "what are the possibilities", "explore scenarios", "scenario analysis", "possibility space", "
SKILL.md
| 1 | # What-If Oracle — Possibility Space Explorer |
| 2 | |
| 3 | A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full **possibility space** — branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | Based on the What-If Statement paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a **fundamental computing operation** — the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one. |
| 6 | |
| 7 | Published research: [The What-If Statement (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18736841)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18736841) | [IDNA Consolidation v2 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18807387)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18807387) |
| 8 | |
| 9 | ## Core Principle: 0·IF·1 |
| 10 | |
| 11 | Every scenario analysis has three elements: |
| 12 | |
| 13 | - **0** — The unexpressed state (what hasn't happened yet, the potential) |
| 14 | - **1** — The expressed state (what IS, the current reality) |
| 15 | - **IF** — The conditional bond (the decision, event, or change that transforms 0 into 1) |
| 16 | |
| 17 | The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence. |
| 18 | |
| 19 | ## How to Run the Oracle |
| 20 | |
| 21 | ### Phase 1 — Frame the Question |
| 22 | |
| 23 | Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it: |
| 24 | |
| 25 | **Decompose into components:** |
| 26 | |
| 27 | - **The Variable:** What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis) |
| 28 | - **The Magnitude:** By how much? (quantify if possible) |
| 29 | - **The Timeframe:** Over what period? |
| 30 | - **The Context:** What's the current state before the change? |
| 31 | |
| 32 | **If the question is vague, sharpen it:** |
| 33 | |
| 34 | - "What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?" |
| 35 | - "What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?" |
| 36 | |
| 37 | Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding. |
| 38 | |
| 39 | ### Phase 2 — Map the Possibility Space |
| 40 | |
| 41 | Generate **4-6 scenario branches** using this framework: |
| 42 | |
| 43 | | Branch | Definition | Purpose | |
| 44 | | ------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | |
| 45 | | **Ω Best Case** | Everything goes right. Key assumptions all validate. Lucky breaks occur. | Define the ceiling — what's the maximum upside? | |
| 46 | | **α Likely Case** | Most probable path given current evidence. No major surprises. | Anchor expectations in reality | |
| 47 | | **Δ Worst Case** | Key assumptions fail. Two things go wrong simultaneously. | Define the floor — what's the maximum downside? | |
| 48 | | **Ψ Wild Card** | An unexpected variable enters that nobody is tracking. Black swan territory. | Stress-test for the unimaginable | |
| 49 | | **Φ Contrarian** | The opposite of the consensus view turns out to be true. | Challenge groupthink and reveal hidden assumptions | |
| 50 | | **∞ Second Order** | The first-order effects trigger cascading consequences nobody predicted. | Map the ripple effects | |
| 51 | |
| 52 | ### Phase 3 — Analyze Each Branch |
| 53 | |
| 54 | For each scenario branch, provide: |
| 55 | |
| 56 | ``` |
| 57 | ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗ |
| 58 | ║ BRANCH: [Ω/α/Δ/Ψ/Φ/∞] — [Branch Name] ║ |
| 59 | ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ |
| 60 | ║ Probability: [X%] ║ |
| 61 | ║ Timeframe: [When this could materialize] ║ |
| 62 | ║ Confidence: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] ║ |
| 63 | ╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣ |
| 64 | ║ NARRATIVE: ║ |
| 65 | ║ [2-3 sentences describing how this ║ |
| 66 | ║ scenario unfolds step by step] ║ |
| 67 | ║ ║ |
| 68 | ║ KEY ASSUMPTIONS: ║ |
| 69 | ║ • [What must be true for this to happen] ║ |
| 70 | ║ • [And this] ║ |
| 71 | ║ ║ |
| 72 | ║ TRIGGER CONDITIONS: ║ |
| 73 | ║ • [Early signal that this branch is ║ |
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